What the experts predict:
- There are 3 to 4 pandemics per century since 1580, 9 –
39 years apart
- 1918-1919: 40 million deaths (50,000 in Canada)
- 1957-1958: 2 million deaths (7,000 in Canada)
- 1968-1969: 1 million deaths (4,000 in Canada)
- The next one will be one of the worst
- The virus will likely kill 11,000 to 51,000 Canadians
- The virus will likely kill 3,000 to 20,000 Ontarians
- In perspective, the typical flu kills 500 to 1500 per year
in Canada and SARS killed 44 Ontarians
- A new pandemic strain will arise in South-east Asia
- Ontario will have little lead time between the declaration of
a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) and when it
spreads to this province
- There will be 2 or more waves of 8 weeks each, 3 to 9 months
apart
- The attack rate will be about 35% in the first wave (35% of
the population will become infected over the duration of the first
wave)
- Children and healthy adults will be more at risk of becoming
ill than the elderly, who may have residual immunity – however
the elderly will be at higher risk of death
- 55% of infected people will require medical care; 2% will need
hospitalization
- 33% of deaths will be in people under the age of 65, compared
to 1/20 in normal flu seasons
- A vaccine will not be available for at least 4 – 5 months
after the pandemic is declared…possibly in time for the
second wave. Even so, it will only be 70% to 90% effective and
available in short supply on a priority basis (health care, EMS,
essential services, etc)
Source: Canadian and Ontario Pandemic Influenza
plans
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What we now know:
What the experts predict:
Socio-Economic impacts:
A Pandemic is different:
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